The world we once knew has changed dramatically in the last three months, and as countries around the world implement quarantines and social distancing practices to contain the pandemic, the magnitude and speed in which the collapse in activity that has followed, has been unlike anything we have experienced in our lifetimes. This really is a crisis like no other, and with it comes uncertainty about the devastating impact it has had on people’s lives and livelihoods.

A lot is riding on the epidemiology of the virus and the actual effectiveness of the containment measures that have been enforced so far, along with the development of therapeutics and vaccines, all of which are seemingly hard to predict with any certainty at this stage. Many countries now face additional crises due to the shutdown of economies. Policymakers are providing unprecedented support to households, firms, and financial markets, and, while this is crucial for a strong recovery, there is without question, considerable uncertainty about what the economic landscape will look like when we do eventually emerge from this worldwide lockdown - and whether it has done far more harm than actual good in the decisions that were made throughout the initial phases in the  process. 

If we are to work under the assumption that the pandemic and its required containment peaks in the second quarter for most countries in the world, and then recedes in the second half of this year, would the projection of global growth in 2020 likely fall to -3 percent? This would be a downgrade of 6.3 percentage points from that of January 2020. Which is a massive revision over a very short period. If so, this would make the world lockdown the worst recession since the Great Depression, and far worse still - than the Global Financial Crisis of 2008/9 combined.

Assuming the policy makers decisions are effective in preventing widespread job losses and bankruptcies, not to mention the strain on financial systems; growth could rebound in 2021 to 5.8%.That figure would only reflect a partial economic recovery, which would still remain low showing loses for the 2020/2021 period of around 9 trillion dollars. And no country will be spared. Especially those economies that rely so heavily on industries such as tourism for their growth. Some of those entered into this crisis already in a high debt weakened and vulnerable state. However, without exclusion, it is both advanced and the developing economies who are in this recession together. 

As containment measures are removed, policymakers must also plan for a rapid recovery. This should come in the form of a swift and obvious shift toward recovery by supporting demand, incentivising hiring, and helping to speedily repair the balance sheets in both the private and public sector. And while there are indeed some hopeful signs that this health crisis will end, in the meantime, we are still faced with tremendous uncertainty around what comes next, and how our world will look in recovery this time round. There will not be a ‘new normal’ to become accustomed to, but rather a different way of living through crisis, recovery and re-growth – for all.